A few of my frequent commenters know that I just lately returned from a go to to Southeast Asia. On this publish, I wish to current somewhat energy-related details about this a part of the world. Most of my data is from printed vitality stories, however somewhat is from my go to to Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. I’ve included these international locations in my Southeast Asia totals, plus Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and (to the extent I might discover the information), quantities for a number of different small international locations included within the grouping utilized by the United Nations in its “Southeast Asia” grouping.
Whereas Southeast Asia shares many of the vitality issues of the remainder of the world, it appears to me that this area is considerably higher positioned to deal with the vitality shortfalls that lie forward than many different areas. Southeast Asia’s heat, moist local weather is useful, as is its provide of coal, notably in Indonesia. Most of the individuals on this a part of the world are used to residing in cramped quarters–three generations in a big one-room house, for instance. Plentiful forests present a renewable supply of vitality. Non secular traditions assist present order. These elements may fit collectively to permit the economies of those international locations to proceed to some extent, whilst a lot of the remainder of the world pushes within the path of collapse.
[1] Southeast Asia is discovering it should import ever-larger quantities of oil to satisfy the wants of its rising economies.
Determine 1 exhibits that Southeast Asia produces somewhat oil itself. This oil manufacturing (blue line) reached a peak in 2000 and has fallen since then. Such a sample is frequent among the many international locations of the world–oil manufacturing begins falling as soon as the simply extracted oil is eliminated.
Southeast Asia’s oil consumption (orange line) has typically been rising. Up till 1993, the realm produced sufficient oil for its personal wants. Extra just lately, Southeast Asia’s oil wants have been met by way of rising imports of oil. Thus, Southeast Asia has been a internet importer of oil for over 30 years. With decreased journey associated to Covid in 2020 and 2021, there was a dip in consumption and imported oil in these years. By 2023, nonetheless, consumption was again above 2019 ranges, and imports had been larger than in 2019.
[2] Pure fuel manufacturing in Southeast Asia reached a peak in 2015, and it has been declining ever since.
The scenario with pure fuel manufacturing is much like that of oil. Southeast Asia’s pure fuel provide reached a peak in 2015, and it has been falling ever since.
Determine 2 exhibits that when pure fuel manufacturing (blue line) started to say no, Southeast Asian pure fuel consumption (orange line) began to flatten out and even decline a bit. Pure fuel exports started to say no, as nicely, starting greater than a decade earlier than the height in manufacturing was reached. A number of the pure fuel exports are liquefied pure fuel exports, below long run contracts. These can not simply be reduce due to insufficient manufacturing.
At the moment, in lots of elements of the world, there’s excessive demand for pure fuel to stability out electrical energy generated by wind and photo voltaic. Southeast Asia, which has a declining provide of pure fuel accessible for export, can not present a lot pure fuel to assist the international locations coping with this intermittency downside. However, as we’ll see, Southeast Asia itself appears to have principally stayed away from wind and photo voltaic. It is a plus.
It appears possible that each oil and pure fuel extraction inside Southeast Asia will proceed to say no. It is a fear for the longer term.
[3] Southeast Asia’s coal provide has been rising, serving to to help its business and exports.
Coal manufacturing remains to be rising in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia being the first supply of manufacturing.
A current report says that coal manufacturing in Indonesia in 2024 elevated by 7.1% over manufacturing in 2023, exhibiting that progress in coal manufacturing continues. Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are all importers of coal, a lot of which possible comes from Indonesia.
[4] Southeast Asia’s per capita vitality consumption has been rising, resulting from rising coal consumption and the addition of different kinds of vitality, made doable by fossil fuels.
Hydroelectricity appears to be the only largest class of “All Different” vitality provide. Constructing dams to provide hydro-electric energy has been made doable by the provision of coal to provide concrete and metal.
One other main class of “All Different” appears to be the burning of wooden chips.
A 3rd class of “All Different” vitality manufacturing is geothermal energy. Each Indonesia and the Philippines generate electrical energy utilizing geothermal vitality. Geothermal works greatest when a rustic has volcanic mountains that may present the excessive temperatures required. Southeast Asia appears to have greater than its share of volcanoes.
Wind generators and photo voltaic panels appear to be comparatively little used on this a part of the world. Nuclear doesn’t appear to be used in any respect on this a part of the world.
This mixture of All Different vitality provide appears to be extra steady than the extra frequent “wind and photo voltaic” model of All Different vitality provide. Additionally, nuclear electrical energy now appears to have a uranium provide downside, as I mentioned in a current publish. It’s a high-tech answer that poor international locations, reminiscent of these in Southeast Asia, are prone to have appreciable issues attempting to emulate.
[5] Southeast Asia has a number of benefits that permit its inhabitants to get together with comparatively little vitality, if fossil fuels develop into much less accessible.
As talked about within the introduction, the delicate local weather of Southeast Asia permits individuals to get alongside with out heating or cooling their houses. In reality, houses don’t have to be very substantial in the event that they don’t want insulation. They’ll simply be rebuilt with native supplies.
On our journey, we noticed a number of one-room houses by which as much as three generations lived collectively. In fact, individuals in all places would love fancy houses with plenty of rooms, indoor loos, and heating and cooling. However these items require fossil fuels, each to initially construct and to keep up. If individuals can be taught to reside in very modest housing, it tremendously reduces the fossil gas vitality wants of an financial system.
It appears to me that if the world is heading within the path of not sufficient fossil fuels, Southeast Asia is a area that may get alongside with out a lot hurt, even on much less gas than is offered right this moment. Farming appears to be finished with little use of gas, proper now. Many households are used to residing in shared residing areas. Day by day markets, promoting meat, together with reside chickens and geese, appear to be frequent.
Primarily based on my calculations, the per-capita vitality consumption of Southeast Asia is about half that of China and about 21% of the US’s common per-capita vitality consumption.
Economies in heat, moist climates have a bonus as a result of agriculture will be finished year-around. With out fossil fuels, Southeast Asia wouldn’t have the ability to help as massive a inhabitants as right this moment, however it appears possible that these international locations might nonetheless help a considerable, if decrease, inhabitants. The Backyard of Eden talked about within the Ebook of Genesis within the Bible appeared to have a number of the traits of Southeast Asian international locations right this moment. If “heat and moist” was an answer within the early days, it could be an answer sooner or later.
[6] Southeast Asia has nowhere close to the dimensions of vitality provides to switch China, with its large industrial output.
China’s electrical energy manufacturing in 2023 was 23.0 occasions its electrical energy manufacturing in 1985. Southeast Asia’s electrical energy manufacturing in 2023 was 12.8 occasions its electrical energy manufacturing in 1985. Thus, China’s progress price has been near twice as quick as Southeast Asia.
Whereas China’s speedy progress has been spectacular, it is rather exhausting to keep up. Southeast Asia’s slower progress curve, which remains to be considerably rising, would appear to be simpler to keep up. If it does begin to fall, it would hopefully be a slower fall.
[7] Indonesia, which is a part of Southeast Asia, is a world chief in coal manufacturing.
Coal tends to be an affordable supply of warmth and electrical energy and is crucial in making metal. The commercial revolution around the globe was began with using coal. Coal remains to be used closely in manufacturing. Whereas the rich international locations of the world speak an amazing deal about carbon dioxide and local weather change, the poorer international locations of the world–together with these in Southeast Asia–proceed to make use of coal, to the extent it’s accessible.
Worldwide, China is primary in coal manufacturing (93.10 exajoules), in response to the 2024 Statistical Evaluate of World Vitality. India is in second place, with manufacturing of 16.65 exajoules. Indonesia is shut behind in third place, with coal manufacturing of 15.73 exajoules. The benefit that Indonesia has is that its inhabitants (281,000) is way decrease than that of India (1.4 billion), in order that its coal-benefit relative to inhabitants is way higher than that of India.
I don’t assume that we all know how lengthy coal manufacturing will proceed to develop. Theoretically, how lengthy manufacturing will proceed to develop is tied to the quantity of coal reserves, however it’s questionable whether or not right this moment’s printed reserve numbers are very helpful in figuring out the amount accessible at a worth clients are prepared to pay. The 2024 Statistical Evaluate of World Vitality report exhibits fairly low coal reserves for Southeast Asia, and fairly excessive coal reserves for the US, Russia, and Australia. This identical report has a observe on the high of the web page exhibiting coal reserves that claims, “The methodology and timing of updating reserve numbers is below overview.” The authors of the report appear to be saying, “Anticipate large revisions of those reserve numbers sooner or later.”
[8] Folks of Southeast Asia appear to have a practice of being exhausting working and co-operative.
One report describes the work tradition of Southeast Asia as “Neighborhood oriented, with respect for seniors, and suppleness.” The identical report signifies that sustaining a relaxed demeanor and never exhibiting anger in public are necessary in international locations like Thailand and Indonesia. The article signifies that smiling performs a crucial function in communication, protecting the interactions constructive.
My husband and I had been impressed by how joyful the Buddha figures appeared to be.
Religions appear to assist present a security internet for the poor. Working as a priest provides an choice for earnings for many who would in any other case be unemployed and are prepared to check.
[9] The world financial system, together with Southeast Asia, is already starting to come across oil shortfalls. A method they have an effect on the financial system is thru much less progress in long-distance tourism.
There’s a temptation to imagine that the vacationer commerce will develop, permitting the economies of Southeast Asia to develop on the identical time. Nonetheless, it’s turning into obvious that this doesn’t essentially work nicely in a world scuffling with insufficient oil provides.
We noticed many examples of buildings, together with total resorts, that had been began and apparently deserted. Specifically, Cambodia appeared to have many buildings that had been began as Chinese language investments. We had been informed that these buildings had been left with out being accomplished, in or round 2020.
The northern a part of Vietnam appeared to be experiencing a number of the identical problem. This partly accomplished constructing is from Da Nang, a coastal metropolis in what was previously North Vietnam.
[10] We should wait and see how issues actually end up.
Southeast Asia appears to have the ability to feed an terrible lot of individuals with its rice fields and fish farms, operated with little or no fossil gas enter.
There are loads of items of the story we don’t perceive. With out sufficient oil, individuals might have to remain nearer to house. However fairly a number of individuals in heat, humid climates might be able to get alongside, for fairly some time, with very modest residing preparations.
