The 2022 South African census set an undesirable file: it’s the census with the very best undercount amongst these the place the undercount is measured and reported by the United Nations Inhabitants Division. The reported undercount of 31% is a few 10 share factors greater than the earlier highest notified undercount (in Comoros in 2017).
Whereas the outcomes from the 2022 South African census, launched in October 2023, had been adjusted for the undercount, it means the outcomes are extra estimates than counts, producing numerous anomalies within the census information. These name their usefulness into query.
A census is, primarily, as correct a rely as attainable of the variety of individuals in a rustic at a cut-off date. It makes an attempt to explain the demographic and socioeconomic traits of the inhabitants. It additionally gives key benchmark estimates of fertility and mortality of the inhabitants.
Census information are additionally essential for planning funding, and in figuring out the allocation of assets by each private and non-private sector entities. Particularly, a census gives details about small space populations which is often not accessible from different sources.
Selections on the place to construct homes, colleges, infrastructure and factories are formed by census information.
Census information are additionally used as a sampling body in different surveys. In South Africa these embrace the Quarterly Labour Pressure Survey, nationwide poverty traces and burden of illness research. These surveys present extra detailed info on the nation’s inhabitants, monitor the progress made in addressing socioeconomic disparities and supply the denominators for a lot of indicators used to trace the Sustainable Growth Targets.
We’re demographers with lengthy expertise within the evaluation of census information from many international locations, however significantly with information from each post-apartheid census. In a technical report lately printed by the South African Medical Analysis Council, we spotlight numerous operational and logistical difficulties encountered in planning and operating South Africa’s 2022 census.
We conclude that these difficulties render the census information collected unfit for objective. We advocate that the outcomes be used with excessive warning in planning and useful resource allocation till thorough investigations are made attainable by Statistics South Africa.
Recognized weaknesses
Rigorous statistical procedures exist to provide last estimates of the inhabitants correcting for the undercount utilizing a Put up-Enumeration Survey (PES). It is a small-scale survey performed quickly after the census date that seeks to determine who was, and was not, counted within the census.
Primarily based on the PES performed within the second half of 2022, Statistics South Africa estimates that the census undercounted the inhabitants by 31%. The extent of the undercount was revealed on the time of the discharge of the census outcomes on 10 October 2023. However the undercount was not highlighted by Statistics South Africa. Nor did it command widespread fashionable or public consideration.
Amongst our most necessary findings are that:
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Primarily based on demographic reconstruction, the nationwide inhabitants of 62 million, after adjustment for the estimated undercount may need been overestimated by round 1 million individuals (or beneath 2%). Half of this extra is attributable to overestimates of the Indian/Asian and white inhabitants teams, the place the estimated undercount in each teams exceeded 60%.
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The surplus is concentrated in these aged 50 and over. It can’t plausibly be attributed to web immigration at these ages.
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There’s a important undercount, even after adjustment, of youngsters aged 5 at their final birthday.
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There are a variety of anomalies within the nationwide and provincial inhabitants estimates by age, intercourse and inhabitants group which might be inconsistent with information from earlier censuses and nationwide important registration information.
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The estimates of inhabitants numbers at district and municipal ranges are extremely inconsistent with estimates from numerous different information sources. These embrace Statistics South Africa’s personal mid-year inhabitants estimates, and information from the voters’ roll from the native authorities elections.
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There are demographic and statistical anomalies within the changes for the undercount used to provide the ultimate inhabitants estimates from the enumerated inhabitants. These suggest a a lot larger diploma of confidence and certainty concerning the estimates than in all fairness attainable.
Taken collectively, these findings name into query the reliability of the 2022 South African census information as a supply for planning and useful resource allocation, particularly the Equitable Share Formulae. These are utilized by the nationwide treasury to find out apportionment of budgets to provinces, districts and municipalities.
What occurred?
At this level, and given the paucity of knowledge within the public area, it’s arduous to pin down exactly why the undercount within the 2022 census was practically twice that encountered in 2011.
Nevertheless, the technical report suggests a spread of contributory components.
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Trying to run a census in the course of the COVID pandemic sophisticated planning and operations. This determination seems to have been pressured by the nationwide treasury’s refusal to permit the funds for the census to be held over to the subsequent fiscal 12 months.
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Delays in recruiting and coaching area workers to conduct in-person information assortment. The unique intent had been to gather as a lot information as attainable from households on-line utilizing an online portal. However a large fieldwork operation needed to be mounted at quick discover.
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Repeated extensions to the interval throughout which information is collected. This was significantly true within the Western Cape, the place enumeration lastly ended practically 4 months after the census date.
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Issues with the Put up-Enumeration Survey used to derive the changes to provide the ultimate inhabitants estimates. First, delays within the operating of the survey, which concerned trying to match family membership many months after the census date. Second, the scope and measurement of the survey was far too small to precisely regulate the enumerated inhabitants for the undercount recognized. Third, there are inexplicable statistical anomalies within the outcomes from the survey and the adjusted census outcomes.
Implications – and what must be executed
The technical report concludes that the info from the 2022 South African census must be used with excessive warning till thorough investigations are made attainable by Statistics South Africa. Such an investigation would additionally require the discharge of census information collected on fertility, mortality and migration. So far these haven’t been launched.
Pending these investigations, Statistics South Africa can be strongly suggested to not base its annual collection of projected mid-year inhabitants estimates on the outcomes of the 2022 census.
One other census is unlikely to be performed earlier than 2031. Which means another set of inhabitants estimates by age, intercourse and inhabitants group is urgently required. These different estimates might extra precisely describe the South African inhabitants, and supply a greater foundation for useful resource allocation and planning.
