As Nigeria’s Nationwide Inhabitants Fee prepares for a nationwide census scheduled for Might 2022 – the primary since 2006 – The Dialog Africa’s Wale Fatade requested demographer and social statistician Akanni Akinyemi what a census entails and the way prepared the nation is for the train.
What’s a census and why is it essential for a rustic?
A inhabitants census is the method of amassing, compiling, evaluating, analysing, publishing and disseminating demographic traits of a rustic at a specified time.
It’s best performed each 10 years to mirror the inhabitants dynamics. It ought to be capable to present adjustments in fertility, mortality, migration and the labour pressure. The socioeconomic state of affairs have to be captured and it ought to give the age and intercourse construction of the inhabitants.
Census knowledge ought to present dependable data on the inhabitants dimension at nationwide, sub-national and decrease administrative ranges.
That is important data for planning social, financial and infrastructural improvement, budgeting and monitoring authorities efficiency.
A significant energy of a inhabitants census is the flexibility to offer data on the decrease administrative ranges. As an example, well being indicators are greatest monitored at these ranges. Interventions throughout outbreaks of illness require dependable estimates of native populations.
Census data can be the bedrock of different surveys. The Demographic and Well being Surveys, Efficiency Monitoring for Motion, A number of Indicator Cluster surveys, Malaria Indicator Surveys and lots of others derive their sampling from the census.
How is a census usually performed?
There are three elements: pre-census planning, census, and post-enumeration surveys. Earlier than the census, the general public is made conscious, geographical enumeration areas are demarcated and maps are procured. The logistics of conducting a census in Nigeria are huge. The census actions can solely start after the presidential assent and a devoted funds line. The 2022 funds authorized N177.33 billion (about US$425 million) for this 12 months’s census.
Ideally, a census questionnaire and methodology is developed and validated. Census questionnaires do change every now and then. For instance, the 2006 census collected data on age, intercourse, occupation, literacy and employment. It additionally requested about housing, entry to water, electrical energy and different family facilities. It didn’t accumulate data on fertility, mortality, migration and incapacity. Nothing was requested about faith and ethnicity.
The post-enumeration survey is a important side of high quality assurance and management. Nonetheless, there are different points across the political and authorized framework as supplied within the structure. That is to make sure its acceptability, eventual publication and official gazette. The figures then grow to be official.
How did Nigeria conduct its previous censuses?
The census has at all times been problematic in Nigeria. The 1962, 1963 and 1973 censuses had been bedevilled with controversies. They had been largely about deliberate manipulation of census figures at sub-national ranges. The 1973 census provoked debate alongside ethnic traces. In 2006, the Lagos State authorities rejected the figures and ran a parallel census.
The 2006 census was the final one, so Nigeria is overdue for one more. The political interference was huge and hampered the scientific processes. Vital data was not collected on fertility, mortality, migration and incapacity.
In 2006 there was an excessive amount of political curiosity within the composition of the inhabitants fee board, with 38 members. These individuals are not professionals in inhabitants or statistics however appointed largely for political causes. This put a number of stress on the census actions. The 2006 census was unable to fulfil considered one of its important mandates: offering knowledge beneath native authorities ranges.
Evaluating the 2006 Nigeria census with different African international locations like Sudan’s 2008 census reveals that political challenges shouldn’t be an obstacle. The planning, conduct, evaluation and high quality assurance was enough.
Census figures are often disputed in Nigeria. Why, and what must be executed?
The best way sources are shared in Nigeria’s political system places pointless stress on the census. It encourages aggressive manoeuvring and manipulative tendencies in any respect ranges. The 2006 post-enumeration survey was poorly deliberate and poorly applied. Census knowledge weren’t launched to researchers for additional evaluation and scrutiny. This makes it troublesome to make use of the 2006 census as a foundation for the 2022 one.
The census coordinating fee is accountable for high quality and credibility of the method in any respect phases. Sadly, the composition of the fee’s hierarchy is extra about political features than scientific benefit. Ideally, an environment friendly statistical system ought to guarantee there are different credible sources of information to validate or complement census knowledge. Nonetheless, there’s a lack of dedication to making sure the standard of different sources of information.
The fee ought to have a technical working group of consultants sourced from skilled demographers in academia and business.
Processing and publishing of census data ought to adhere strictly to a timeline. The well timed launch of census knowledge for analysis and educational functions must be assured.
How prepared is Nigeria for the census this 12 months?
The nationwide census is a colossal, costly and labour-intensive statistical operation that requires in depth planning. The success of a census is dependent upon a number of components. These embrace technical experience, independence from political interference, wonderful geo-referenced maps, large human and monetary sources and good timing.
Though among the pre-census actions just like the enumeration space demarcation have been nicely applied, it’s unrealistic to imagine that all the pieces can be prepared. Recruitment and cost of employees had been important points within the 2006 census.
12 months 2023 is an election 12 months with many political actions and this may have an effect on the census slated for 2022. Nigeria’s safety challenges and the financial system are components to be thought of too. Then there’s the unpredictable dimension of COVID-19.
The extent of public {and professional} consciousness of the census can be very low. The Inhabitants Fee’s web site has no data on milestones and preparedness. Census is a large scientific duty that requires a excessive stage of preparedness, transparency and high quality assurance.
