I see three ranges at which we might attempt to repair cultural drift: particular cultural traits, cultural evolution course of parameters, and meta mechanism/establishments.
First, we might attempt to (A) determine particular cultural traits over the previous few centuries that appear plausibly maladaptive, after which attempt to advocate for his or her reversals. Second, we might attempt to (B) determine methods during which the cultural evolution course of as we speak has dangerous parameters after which attempt to advocate for adjustments that may enhance these parameters. Third, we might attempt to (C) assign the entire downside to governance mechanisms that we discover or make that appear competent sufficient to truly clear up it. Ballot reputation of those choices: A 28%, B 20%, C 31%, none or not work fixing 21%.
In fact all the upper stage approaches should embody the decrease ranges in some methods. The problem is whether or not these of us attempting to resolve this downside ought to attempt to straight assault these decrease ranges, by discussing them and coming to a consensus on them after which pushing for that consensus, or if we must always talk about, agree on, and push for larger stage selections, after which let the decrease stage outcomes fall the place they might.
Re the very best stage method, I’ve beforehand talked about handing the issue over to futarchy, a governance mechanism that’s plausibly way more competent that current ones. This might require a giant neighborhood to assign to futarchy a purpose inconsistent with civ collapse, and deal with that purpose sacred so they’re proud to sacrifice for it and ashamed to desert it. Listed here are the highest six targets discovered in two units of polls:
Alas, as futarchy is simply now, after 25 years, present process small trials, it’s a massive ask for this mechanism to be confirmed, extensively adopted, after which utilized to this key downside.
On the mid stage method, attempting to repair parameters of the cultural evolution course of, it’s estimates of those parameters as we speak, in comparison with centuries in the past, that’s our major proof that we would have a giant downside. The 4 key params are: (A) choice pressures, (B) selection, (C) surroundings change charges, and (D) inside cultural change charges. That means 8 attainable mid stage fixes:
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(A1) Poverty Return – return to premodern charges of poverty, famine, illness.
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(A2) Battle Return – return to premodern charges of conflict dying & destruction
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(A3) All Capitalism – let capitalism run all cultural selection, like marriage, youngsters, legislation, authorities
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(A4) Malthusian AI – AI or ems attain human stage, robust competitors drops wages to subsistence, free to evolve personal cultures
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(B) Fragment World – world splits into dozens+ of numerous insular cultures, massive reduce charges of journey, speak, & different cultural contact, however preserve different world commerce
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(C) Slower Change – Low charges tech change & econ progress, from x2 in 20yrs to 200yr, most likely results in malthusian wages
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(D1) Disgrace Activism – cultural activists now seen as villains, all see current tradition as sacred, to not be modified
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(D2) Tradition RETVRN – Return key cultural norms & values wholesale to these of then profitable pre-1700 cultures
Re these choices, the next desk exhibits ballot priorities for need: how fascinating is every resolution, assist: how a lot it might assist the cultural drift downside, simple: how simple they might be to attain, precise: how probably every is to truly occur, and a sum of those 4 priorities. All sorted by that the sum of those priorities, which supplies the identical rating as sorting by their product, and in addition as by assist precedence.
The three lowest fixes are all of the least desired, and have the identical relative rankings of all however precise, with Malthusian AI the clear worst repair general. That is considerably stunning to me as I usually get folks saying why fear as AI will repair all the pieces.
Respondents like Tradition RETVRN and Disgrace Activism, besides that they assume them loopy laborious to make occur. Battle Return is kind of undesired, however is seen as fairly probably and straightforward to attain. The highest two fixes, All Capitalism and Fragment World are seen as fairly fascinating and possible, so possibly we must always focus our efforts there.
On probably the most particular method, re cultural traits, I collected this listing of 32 traits:
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Abolish Slavery – from settle for to abolish slavery, serfdom
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Capstone Marriage – marriage from early when not sure, plastic to later when fashioned, safe
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Cosmopolitan – from suspicion to celebration of cities, journey, foreigners, international tradition
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Minimize Classism – Legal guidelines, norms from favor to forestall class/household discrimination
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Minimize Racism – Legal guidelines, norms from favor to forestall race/ethnic discrimination
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Minimize Sexism – Legal guidelines, norms from favor to forestall gender discrimination
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Govt Safety – Much less to extra safety, insurance coverage, regulation by authorities
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Honor to Happiness – widespread targets from honor, responsibility, glory to happiness, not struggling
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Intensive Parenting – parenting norms, legal guidelines from low to excessive consideration, effort
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Much less Enchantment – from world appears magical, enchanted to appears lifeless matter
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Much less Faith – faith from neighborhood authority to tolerated non-public selection Much less
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Respect Aged – from extra to much less deference to and respect for aged Extra
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Complicated Legislation – from low to excessive ranges of legislation guidelines, procedures, complexity
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Extra Democracy – Governance from monarchy to mass democracy
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Extra Fiction Music – anticipated, authorized # week hrs on fiction, music from low to excessive
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Extra Innovator Standing – from much less to extra status to inventors, innovators
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Extra Leisure – work from close to max attainable lifetime hrs to ~40hr/wk solely in midlife
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Extra Medication – from low to excessive precise, anticipated, required medical spending
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Extra Pacifist – militarism, patriotism, wars, from excessive to low standing
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Extra Privateness – from low to excessive anticipated, enforced privateness ranges
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Extra Promiscuous – norms, legal guidelines from suppress to tolerate divorce, affairs, pre-marital intercourse
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Extra Faculty – from much less to extra standing for and anticipated years of education
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Extra Selection – from low to excessive standing, prevalence of number of merchandise, companies
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Extra Work Which means – work targets from survival, social function to which means, notice potential
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Private Marriage – marriage from organized co-makers of house/youngsters to self-chosen romantic co-consumers
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Respect Nature – attitudes towards nature from totally use to protect, defend
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Intercourse Tolerance – intercourse guidelines, preferences from neighborhood shared to tolerated non-public selection
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Tolerate Psychological Issues – from low to larger tolerance of psychological instability, issues
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Custom to Cause – authority from rulers, faith, custom to knowledge, experiment, & purpose
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Tweens Cease Working – Tweens from staff to banned from employment
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Weaker Kin – from robust to weak kin help & obligations re youngsters, housing, jobs
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Wider Information Sharing – freer speech, wider sharing of opinions, specialised data
I then did polls asking re probably maladaptiveness, and ease of reversing, right here sorted by the product of those two:
Many of those outcomes shock me. I had no thought folks thought complicated legislation and tolerance of psychological issues have been such massive issues. Or that they’d assume reversing psychological points, and an excessive amount of college and democracy, have been so doable. And in any case my writings on an excessive amount of drugs, few see that as maladaptive.
